Commenting on the 83rd Oscars and What May Win

Okay, so I can't help but think the 2011 Oscars will provide as many surprises as did the Academy in 2010 (with The Hurt Locker and its sweep of 6 awards, including the first Directing Award for a woman, Kathryn Bigelow), or in 2009 (with Slumdog Millionaire bagging 8 Awards including Best Picture and Best Director).

Having said that, I don't think there will any surprises among the top three awards.  I’m going out on a limb and saying that The Social Network should take home the Oscars for Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Adapted Screenplay.

Why?  Well, first of all, David Fincher is the wizard behind the curtain of this socially relevant film.  And he's been up for the directing Oscar before (for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button in 2008).  But, now, he has the right product to go along with the pop cultural moment.  'Social networking' is all the rage over the last couple of years.  And his movie is caught up in that Zeitgeist.  Even the media can't get enough of the topic, writing incessantly about the contributions and negative ramifications of this new form of communication, from how it is harming our children's ability to spell, to the ways it has revolutionized dating in the new millennium.  The Social Network is riding the wave of this social phenomenon, which should pay off for David Fincher when he wins a directing Oscar on Sunday night.

The producers, Fincher and the Hollywood 'kingmaker' Scott Rudin, also made some really first-rate marketing decisions which could bear fruit in their movie’s bid for Best Picture.  Rudin is the man behind the surprise Best Picture Oscar Winner No Country for Old Men in 2008, as well as not one, but two of this year's Best Picture contenders: True Grit in addition to The Social Network.  This team of producers cleverly released The Social Network on DVD on January 11, 2011, giving Oscar voters ample opportunity to screen it before they cast their votes beginning on February 3, 2011.  This 'Hail Mary' move also garnered spectators an extra six weeks to make it part of their water cooler conversations, if they had ignored it at the box office.  Those forty-eight days really has made all the difference.  By now, The Social Network is on the tip of everyone's tongue.  Even Mark Zuckeberg eventually came around, agreeing to meet Jesse Eisenberg on Saturday Night Live, which aired on January 29, 2011.  This classy move by the social media mogul essentially christened the movie based on his image and made us fall in love with the “fictional” account of his unparalleled rise to fame all the more.  So, I venture a guess that, going in to Sunday’s telecast, The Social Network is the movie to beat for Best Picture. 

Aaron Sorkin, the Emmy-winning screenwriter of A Few Good Men (1992), The American President (1995), and now The Social Network, has waited a long time for his Oscar due.   Now sober--and still brilliant, Mr. Sorkin will most likely be able to call himself "Oscar winner," as well, come Sunday night.

Unfortunately, I don't see any surprises in store for the best actor or actress nominees.  It seems Colin Firth and Natalie Portman's statues to lose.  That said, the surprises may come in the supporting acting categories, for I fully expect Christian Bale and Melissa Leo to take home the Supporting Actor and Actress Awards, respectively, for their equally brilliant turns in the much overlooked Irish biopic The Fighter.

After Leo put herself forward in a rather provocative way, by taking out full-page ads (donned in a  low-cut LBD and a faux fur) asking Oscar voters to "consider" her, she had to go back on the publicity circuit to defend her actions.  One Oscar voter told The Hollywood Reporter, "She lost my vote."  Although some (including that person, I'm sure) would call Leo's tactic a cheap ploy, as a critical cultural media scholar I would rather describe her behavior as a perfectly situated twenty-first century marketing strategy; and, moreover, one that sets her apart from her contemporaries.  So, I venture that this incredibly gifted actress from Frozen Winter and HBO's Treme (who, by the way, has already taken home this year's SAG and Golden Globe Awards in the same category) will bag the Oscar on Sunday night, as well.

There may be a surprise in store with the Foreign Language Film Nominees, but I suspect the category is all sewn up with Mexico's Biutiful.  Too bad for the talented Javier Bardem that he's up against heavy-hitter Christian Bale, or he might be taking home an Oscar along with his film.

In terms of technical awards, I also don't think anyone would be surprised if the Oscar for Best Cinematography went to the remarkably talented DP Matthew Libatique for his exquisite visual portrayals in The Black Swan.  Many of the Cinematography and DP trade mags have been pronouncing him the unofficial winner since the Oscars were announced on January 25, 2011.

Finally, a lot of people are talking about 127 Hours.  Unfortunately for the Director of Slumdog Millionaire, I have a feeling this talented Brit won't have the same luck he had two years ago.  Lightening doesn't usually strike twice, right?  And, more to the point, this year's Best Picture, Director, and Screenplay nominees are chock full of talent.  I do, however, think that 127 Hours will pull out a win for its striking and innovative Film Editing.

Check back on Monday, March 21, 2011, when (with egg on my face) I comment on the actual 83^rd Annual Oscar winners.  Until then, happy Oscar viewing.  And, remember that you still have 48 hours to catch any Oscar nominated films still in theatres or already out on DVD.